Tropical low 94P is currently sitting north of Samoa and is expected to track westward over the next few days.
MetService said it's only a "low risk" of becoming a cyclone into Monday next week. That puts it at a 5 to 20% chance.
However, into Tuesday and Wednesday the risk of the low turning into a cyclone increases to moderate, which is a 20 to 50% chance.
"The low is expected to be located between Fiji and Vanuatu around the middle of next week," a MetService spokesperson told 1News.
From there, the weather system could track south eastwards and affect New Zealand later next week moving into the weekend.
MetService also pointed out the low could lose its strength and "dissipate" without causing any issues.
MetService will continue to track the system over the coming days and give updates on its path and whether or not it becomes a named cyclone.
The forecaster added the tropics are looking to be "active" on the weather front next week.
It comes as another deluge of heavy rain set to hit Gisborne and the Hawke's Bay.
Hawke's Bay has an Orange rain warning in place, with periods of heavy rain expected from 10am today until 10am on Saturday.
"Expect 150 to 200mm of rain about the ranges and also away from the ranges north of Hastings (this includes the Esk Valley area and the Wairoa District), and 75 to 100mm elsewhere," MetService said.
The heaviest falls are likely from 3pm Friday, with peak rates of 20 to 30mm/h possible.
Gisborne can also expect to see 34 hours of rainfall from Thursday afternoon until midnight on Friday, with rainfall amounts possibly approaching warning criteria.