La Niña

La Niña to impact Pacific - SPREP

As a result, Pacific islands in the central Pacific region such as Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu may experience below normal rainfall which could lead to drought.

Islands in the South-West Pacific will experience higher than normal rainfall, such Fiji, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Southern Cook Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu which might see flooding, landslides or possibly cyclones.

La Niña is expected to last right through to the first quarter of 2021.

Pacific Ocean conditions leaning towards weak La Nina, NIWA

NIWA said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern part of the ocean cooled substantially in October, while tradewinds in the west have been stronger than normal.

It said the tropical Pacific has consistent La Niña like signals in both the ocean and atmosphere.

However, if one does eventuate, it is likely to be weak and short-lived.

La Nina likelihood growing in Pacific

A La Nina system is likely to keep tropical waters cooler than normal.

New Zealand's NIWA agency said there was a 70 percent chance of La Nina conditions developing from now through January.

It was also predicting a moderate to high probability of below normal rainfall in Tuvalu, eastern, western and central Kiribati, the northern Cook Islands, the Marquesas and Nauru.

A number of places can be expecting higher rainfall - namely Tonga, Samoa, Fiji and Niue.


La Nina watch issued as El Nino keeps fading in the Pacific

A La Nina watch was issued Thursday as the warming across the equatorial Pacific’s surface began to fade and cold water started building in its depths, the US Climate Prediction Center said. There is a 60 percent chance the La Nina could occur from July to September and a 70 percent chance there will be one in the winter.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a watch on Tuesday. 

Climate change models too simplistic - report

According to a multi-agency study published this week in Nature Geoscience the predicted increase of severe El Nino and La Nina events will bring increased storm events with extreme coastal flooding and erosion across the Pacific.

Patrick Barnard from the US Geological Survey says other studies have analysed coastal impacts at local and regional levels but this is the first to look at patterns for the whole of the Pacific.

El Nino and La Nina will exacerbate coastal hazards across entire Pacific

According to a multi-agency study published today in Nature Geoscience: "This study significantly advances the scientific knowledge of the impacts of El Niño and La Niña," said Patrick Barnard, USGS coastal geologist and the lead author of the study. "Understanding the effects of severe storms fueled by El Niño or La Niña helps coastal managers prepare communities for the expected erosion and flooding associated with this climate cycle."