Politics in New Caledonia continue to be defined as an overarching contest between those for and those against independence and not as a battle between the left and right.
While previous elections always resulted in a Congress, and then a government, dominated by the pro-French camp, this year may see the balance tilt.
For this to happen, the anti-independence camp would have to lose three or more seats in the 54-strong Congress.
The anti-independence side fears this could happen, the pro-independence side hopes it will.